The move is expected to create space for more budding entrepreneurs in the country to be eligible for self-certification, relaxed public procurement norms, rebate in patent filing, start-up funding, investment and easier closure compliance.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday marginally lowered the country's GDP growth projection for the current fiscal at 6.8 per cent from its earlier estimate of 7 per cent. However, despite the downward revision in the economic growth projection, India will remain among the fastest growing major economies in the world, said RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das while announcing the latest bi-monthly monetary policy.
India's economy continues to be robust, but downside risks such as rising crude oil prices, adverse weather conditions, and the global banking crisis outweigh the upside potential in gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the current financial year (FY24), the finance ministry said on Tuesday in its Monthly Economic Review for March. "We reiterate that downside risks to our official forecast of 6.5 per cent for real GDP growth in FY24 dominate upside risks," the review said. "Opec's surprise production cut has seen oil prices rise in April, off their lows of low-seventies per barrel in March.
The handsome 25 per cent rise in corporate profits in the September quarter amid a sharp contraction in GDP was on the back of wage squeezes, leading to rise in inequalities in India, economist Nouriel Roubini said on Thursday. This rising inequality is "dangerous" politically and socially because only a few people in the economy are benefitting, the economics professor at New York's Stern School of Business said. Roubini said earnings of listed entities have risen 25 per cent in the September quarter, which means that wages and income are getting "squeezed, if not collapsed".
After several years of downgrades to the country's medium-term growth outlook, the estimates are likely to be upgraded now, Credit Suisse said in a report. The country's economy is showing signs of bottoming out, it said. According to the report, the consensus forecasts of GDP growth for FY2022 over FY2020 stopped falling after October 2020 (currently at (-) 1 per cent). Analysts at Credit Suisse expect these estimates to be revised upwards.
With only three days to go before Finance Minister P Chidambaram delivers the Budget in Parliament, market expectations with respect to reforms are running high.
Indications are that the DMK combine will win more seats than the AIADMK and BJP, but is facing a tough fight in about half a dozen from the rest, predicts N Sathiya Moorthy of the electoral contest in Tamil Nadu.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned on Tuesday that India's general government debt (comprising both central and state government debt) could exceed 100 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the medium term. It also cautioned that long-term debt sustainability risks are high due to the significant investment required to meet India's climate change mitigation targets. The Indian government, however, disagreed, arguing that risks from sovereign debt are extremely limited as it is predominantly denominated in domestic currency.
The higher salaries and pension outgo will be equivalent to about one per cent of the GDP.
The economy hasn't gathered even half the traction that some of us assumed it would just a year back.
Moody's Investors Service on Friday projected India's growth at zero per cent for the current fiscal and said the negative outlook on sovereign rating reflects increasing risks that GDP growth will remain significantly lower than in the past. The outlook also partly shows weaker policy effectiveness to address economic and institutional issues, it noted in the update to its November 2019 rating forecast.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday said it is expecting some slowdown in the Indian economy next fiscal year and projected the growth to 6.1 per cent from 6.8 per cent during the current fiscal ending March 31. The IMF on Tuesday released the January update of its World Economic Outlook, according to which the global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.4 per cent in 2022 to 2.9 per cent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 per cent in 2024. "Our growth projections actually for India are unchanged from our October Outlook.
What is most troubling is that not a single party that is part of INDIA has talked about any kind of reform and economic sense, argues R Jagannathan.
The statement, issued after the 2-day meeting of the 6-member Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India, also said that recapitalisation of public sector banks along with resolution of stressed assets under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) will create demand for fresh investments.
Brokers said investor sentiment turned choppy on selling by foreign institutional investors ahead of the September month derivatives expiry on Thursday.
The wider NSE Nifty too ended 21.55 points, or 0.21 per cent down at 10,476.70.
On one hand, South Indian states have been complaining about denial of a proportionate portion of the sharable funds from the Centre, based on population. On the other hand, they stand to lose Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha seats that again are based on population, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.
India should not loosen its fiscal deficit targets in the forthcoming budget, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's top economic adviser Arvind Panagariya said.
Former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Tuesday said the media needs to remain vigilant and flag shortcomings of the government with a view to improve the effectiveness of governance.
If you plan to invest in an FD, go for the 12-15-month tenure. This will allow you to redeploy maturity proceeds at higher rates (if rates rise), advises Sarbajeet K Sen.
Pointing out that these recent measures are incremental rather than radical, Moody's said, these steps will sustain higher gross domestic product growth and address some of the constraints on the country's sovereign credit profile.
What's different this time is that global financial stress -- which has its genesis in four policy choices made in recent years -- is juxtaposed with a more resilient real economy, observes Sajjid Z Chinoy, chief India economist at J P Morgan.
Ramaswamy's stance on H-1B visas is reminiscent of the 2016 Trump campaign, when then-candidate Donald Trump, who has also hired a number of foreign workers under H-1B visas for his businesses, took a hardline stance on these foreign workers before later softening his rhetoric.
Inflation trajectory, domestically as also globally, is what will shape the economy, and therefore the market, over the next couple of quarters.'
The 55 basis point (bps) spike in the US 10-year bond yield, triggered by a combination of FOMC's hawkish commentary and BOJ's relaxation of the yield control curve (YCC) has made analysts cautious on Asian equities and expect them to trade sideways in the short-to-medium term.
Rating agencies Crisil and Icra on Monday revised down their India growth projections for the current fiscal and the second quarter mainly due to the ripple effect of slowdown in global growth and mixed crop output. Crisil downgraded the India growth forecast by 30 bps to 7 per cent while Icra pegged the economic expansion at 6.5 per cent for the second quarter of FY2022-23. "We have revised down our forecast for real gross domestic product growth to 7 per cent for fiscal 2023 from 7.3 per cent, primarily because of the slowdown in global growth that has started to impact our exports and industrial activity.
Rangarajan's reaction came after the release of the latest data, which showed headline inflation going up to 9.06 per cent in May from 8.66 per cent in April on the back of rising prices of manufactured products and petrol.
Rajan also expressed hope that a stable government after the Lok Sabha elections will continue the broad fiscal policies of the current regime and India may finally get the Goods and Services Tax, an ambitious indirect tax reform measure.
Analysts are divided on their retail price inflation forecast, with some saying the first quarter numbers will overshoot the RBI target by as much as 60 bps while others are softer in their estimate. Consumer price inflation retreated from its 15-month peak of 7.4 per cent in July to 6.8 per cent in August, much lower than the market expectations, despite vegetable prices remaining elevated at 26.1 per cent. Food inflation eased to 9.9 per cent from 11.5 per cent, led by some cooling of inflation in vegetables, cereals, pulses and milk.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das on Sunday said he has tested positive for coronavirus and will work from isolation while the central bank will continue to function normally. Das said he is asymptomatic and has alerted those who came in contact with him in recent days.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday announced the adoption of the New Delhi Leaders Declaration, a significant victory for India's G20 presidency that came amid increasing tensions and divergent views over the Ukraine conflict.
This time the all-powerful interest-rate setting panel, whose constitution was notified by the government on Thursday, will take call on interest rate. But that's not the only change. The Reserve Bank of India has also decided to change the timing of announcement of its policy review, due next Tuesday, to mid-afternoon.
'In a serious fiscal situation like this, an ostrich-like focus on annual budgeting, event management and defensive rhetoric will only make matters worse,' warns Rathin Roy.
Retail inflation dipped marginally to 6.44 per cent in February, mainly on account of a slight easing in prices of food and fuel items though it remained above the Reserve Bank's comfort level of 6 per cent for the second month in a row. As per the government data released on Monday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation was at 6.52 per cent in January and 6.07 per cent in February 2022. The retail inflation rate for the food basket worked out to be 5.95 per cent in February, marginally lower than 6 per cent in January.
One could argue that India is not troubled in the same way as China is by a declining population and structural problems in real estate/construction and finance. But India has serious trade and fiscal imbalances, and excessive dependence on capital expenditure by the government, points out T N Ninan.
Pre-Budget excercise next month should scrupulously avoid adventurism of all types and refrain from making excessively ambitious projections on revenue and expenditure numbers for 2023-24, suggests A K Bhattacharya.
The outlook for India's rating would improve if fiscal, inflation and infrastructure metrics get better, a global report said.
The RBI needs to maintain a healthy contingency reserve so that it can lend its support in case of a bank failure.
The share of low-cost money in total deposits continued to take a knock at the close of FY23 as banks engaged in intense competition by offering higher interest rates on term money to garner funds amid tight liquidity conditions. The share of current accounts and saving accounts (CASA) in total deposits declined by 2-4 per cent by end of March 2023 from March 2022 figure, according to BSE filings by private banks. The ease of movement of funds on digital platforms and the deployment of money by businesses from current accounts also played a role in dwindling the share of CASA money.
'We are looking at the Budget with the hope that it will address all issues even at the cost of exceeding the fiscal deficit target.'
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